Two Way Hard Three | Las Vegas Casino & Design Blog

November 16, 2006

Gaming Investment Forum Presentations

Posted by detroit1051

Deutsche Bank/Goldman Sachs sponsored the Gaming Investment Forum on November 13-14 as part of G2E. Many of the presentations are available for rebroadcast and are well worth the time to listen to them.

One very good presentation was made by Galaxy about Macau. It was refreshing to get a different perspective than one gets from WYNN and LVS. Some key points:
* The infrastructure won't be sufficient on Cotai until 2012. Even today, Galaxy provides 130 round trip buses a day to move people to and from its Grand Waldo. When Venetian opens, 50,000 people/day will have to be transported. The government better get moving on the light rail system.
* The Chinese middle market is still ten years in the future.
* Will Cotai get sufficient convention business considering Hong Kong, with its 8 million people and its position as Asia's financial capital, isn't overburdened?
* I liked one comment he made, to the effect that there is a great dichotomy between Macau and Vegas operators on the future market. Maybe, I'd better start saving up to pay off my bet with Hunter.

To listen to any of the presentations, go to the following link which has two pages, one for each of the two days:
Gaming Investment Forum Presentations


Read archived comments (12 so far)
November 16, 2006 8:06 AM Posted by Hunter

Yup, I'm feeling pretty good about my position. Betting on government ineptitude (in the form of insufficient infrastructure) pays off every time.

November 16, 2006 8:28 AM Posted by Brian Fey

This is why Wynn has not been in a huge rush to get to Cotai. He said its going to be a great, place, but not in the next few years, he said its going to be the place to be in the next decade, not today. This is maybe the reason Wynn is adding a second hotel tower to the current Wynn Macau, before he focuses on building his next project in Macau on the Cotai strip.

November 16, 2006 10:23 AM Posted by mike_ch

Sheldy is so rich that he'll buy his own private bullettrain on his private dollar just to shuffle people to Cotai!

November 16, 2006 10:24 AM Posted by mike_ch

Darnit. My joke didn't work as I had hoped. I had HTML-esque [insanity] tags around that statement, but the blog ate them.

November 16, 2006 11:43 AM Posted by motoman

mike_ch, I believe you. Maybe not a bullettrain, but previous mention here that he would/could provide his own private transport. (Brian, good point. Shows Wynn's smarts, if true, given his comparatively limited resources.)

And detroit, you're not totally out of the running. I hadn't previously realized Adelson's claim to fame in Vegas was more due to the convention business. So I'd say, as someone else here hinted, it's a matter of his committment to developing that at Venetian Macau, which will be a much different experience for conventioneers than Hong Kong.

OTOH he is so rich he can afford to wait for the infrastructure to catch up, so well see....(but I was on your side in this bet of yours, qualifying "first FULL qtr." and "90% of AVAILABLE rooms," asuming a phased opening like Vegas)....

November 16, 2006 2:04 PM Posted by mike_ch

He might be rich but the company doesn't have a direct line to his bank account, either. I imagine LVS will begin layoffs before he puts too much of his personal cash into it.

November 16, 2006 3:35 PM Posted by Leonard Stern

"LVS will beign layoffs", mike_ch where in the hell are you obtaining your totally misguided information from - get off that crack pipe and get a f**king clue? The current crop of U.S. operators, who are now developing in Macau, including MGM, will most definately benefit on the 'short-term' only. LONG-TERM, however the Cotai Strip will eventually, in due time, become essentially what has taken the Las Vegas Strip numerous decades to develope into what it is today, only the Cotai Strip will realize the substantial higher revenue return per actual sq. ft. when considering that its masterplan is based on a concentrated area of development, so basically all of the current projects (outside of the Cotai Strip) will eventually at some point be relegated to nothing more than the equivalent of what [downtown Las Vegas] has unfortunately evolved into today. Remember, downtown L.V. was, at one point, the impetus and driving force that prompted today's Strip development in the county, and as a matter of record, almost all of the downtown properties in Las Vegas today are suffering substantial loses by comparison. Recentlty, even the majority, if not all, of the clientele generated by the recently constructed first phase of the World Market Center have chosen Strip properties as opposed to downtown. Maybe the Golden Nugget upgrade might improve occupancy numbers at that specific property when complete, but downtown will always be downtown! I believe, and am absolutely certain of the fact, that the Cotai Strip will emerge as an equivalent of the L.V. Strip much earlier than you guys have predicted. Secondly, Adelson is certainly no fool and wouldn't risk $10B if he were not totally convinced of the Cotai Strip's viability + ultimate success in relatively short order, he is without question, one of the most astute businessmen in the gamiing industry. It wouldn't be prudent for any of you to prematurely underestimate his vision in achieving ultimate success with Cotai resulting in [his] subsequent monopoly in Macau. For Christ's sake, Adelson has ALREADY assembled many the most prestigious, top-rated hospitality operators by having them commit themselves to Cotai in a very big way, these leading hoteliers are not only from the U.S. but represent the 'Creme de la Creme' of the best ASIAN operators as well. Even the "almighty" Steve Wynn himself knows damn well that he needs to act quickly by taking up a major position in the Cotai Strip in order for WYNN to succeed long-term in Macau. Wynn really needs to do this while he still has the opportunity to do so!

November 16, 2006 6:23 PM Posted by Brian Fey

I have always loved Ritz-Carlton. I would love for Wynn to team with R/C and do a property together.

November 16, 2006 7:39 PM Posted by motoman

"...he needs to act quickly by taking up a major position in the Cotai Strip in order for WYNN to succeed long-term in Macau. Wynn really needs to do this while he still has the opportunity to do so!"

....So Leonard's actually rooting for Steve?! OMG!
(Sorry man, the devil made me.... :-)

November 16, 2006 9:11 PM Posted by John

Hmm, I still don't agree with a lot of the Cotai planning.

While I do like the idea of Asia's Las Vegas, I don't like the logistical planning of the Cotai Strip. Its too spread out, and too large. There will be little or not foot traffic, which doesn't translate well for most of the hotels at the farthest end of the strip. Its just not the most pedestrian friendly design, and you need pedestrian traffic. That is what the the waterfront district of Macau has, a close nit "Casino District" that will be easily traversed by most incoming pedestrians.

Again, as I've stated on the blog before, I think Cotai is too much, too big, too fast. Short term, I really do think that it will be too hard to fill all of those rooms, and get the very frugal convention crowds to gamble in these gargantuan casinos. I don't know about anyone else, but 500,000 sq. ft. is way too large for any casino. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what will happen.

November 16, 2006 11:13 PM Posted by mike_ch

Leonard, do you actually read these posts before you go off on a tirade about them?

I said that LVS would make cutbacks, including layoffs, before Adelson would sink his personal fortune into keeping the company afloat.

November 17, 2006 4:23 AM Posted by Brian Fey

Actually, according to the Macau Casino World newsletter, LVS has already laid off a number of dealers. Perhaps Wynn is already having a major effect on LVS?