and, though the article was never published, I sure would like that middle sentence back. See the guilty party after the jump.
It's from a paper I wrote that, for several reasons, never saw the light of day and is now just about hopelessly outdated. The paper's theme was the then-inevitably upwards march of amenities and the like throughout the casino world. Here's the paragraph that seems particularly egregious today:
Since 1992, the average cost of a room on the Strip has soared dramatically from $54.19 to just over $137. With the closure and implosion of two of the remaining budget-minded hotels, the Stardust and New Frontier, and thousands of upscale rooms in the pipeline, within a few years $137 will seem as inexpensive as $54 does today. Rooms have become a major revenue center.
The first and last sentences are still factually correct, though the ADR on the Strip in 2011 was just under $132.
To be fair, I wasn't the only one who didn't count on the recession mooting Echelon and the Plaza and slashing room rates, and I wasn't the guy hiring contractors or loaning capital. But looking at that today makes me wonder what other development that will seem incredibly obvious in a few years we're all missing today. With all the numbers in front of me, $200 average ADRs on the Strip by 2010 seemed like a slam dunk in 2006.
Anyone else want to fess up to retrospective myopia? I think I've learned from my mistake, which is why my analyses of the monthly gaming numbers tend to be distinctly more cautious than some other folks out there.
On the other hand, if anyone wants to call their shot and make a bold prediction for the near future, go ahead. We can bump this a year from now and see how good you were at seeing around the corner.